Rapid Intensification Guidance AL022026 260720 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.40 85.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 16.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.20 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.3 31.6 41.3 42.2 42.1 43.6 30.7 34.5 U U VU VU VU VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 35.0 32.0 32.0 29.0 22.0 10.0 24.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 -84.0 -58.0 -50.0 34.0 16.0 -27.0 -47.0 U VU VU VU N U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 52.0 52.0 51.0 50.0 48.0 45.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -10.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 3.1% 1.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.3% 1.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.38 AL022026 260720 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.40 85.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.3 31.6 41.3 42.2 42.1 43.6 30.7 34.5 N N VF VF VF VF N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 52.0 52.0 51.0 50.0 48.0 45.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -10.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%