Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062026 260920 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 33.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.70 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.9 21.6 22.1 27.1 28.9 27.8 17.9 11.7 N N N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 82.2 82.2 80.8 75.4 80.8 83.6 88.0 92.7 N N N U N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 51.0 -4.0 49.0 36.0 -69.0 -49.0 -76.0 -29.0 N U N N VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 45.0 49.0 50.0 48.0 43.0 40.0 38.0 VU VU U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 -3.0 -6.0 -7.0 -3.0 N N N N N F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.9% 0.0% 0.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.48 AL062026 260920 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 33.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.