Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL982026 260916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50     55.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  19.3  27.2  26.8  23.5  21.5  15.0  13.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  23.0  22.0  21.0  25.0  29.0  30.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.4 113.5 113.5 113.5 113.5 121.5 121.5 121.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -35.0 -34.0 -31.0  -1.0 -21.0 -21.0 -45.0  -8.0 VU VU VU  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        0.4%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        3.2%        2.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.32

 AL982026 260916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50     55.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.