Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL982026 260916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10     56.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  27.4  27.5  23.1  24.5  17.1  16.3  13.8  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  20.0  18.0  19.0  22.0  22.0  26.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.5 113.5 113.5 113.5 113.5 113.5 113.5 121.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0 -49.0  -7.0 -16.0 -35.0 -10.0 -29.0 -22.0 VU VU  U  U VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -5.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0   3.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        0.3%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        2.4%        1.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.20

 AL982026 260916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10     56.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.