Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL982026 260917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.40     57.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  28.2  24.9  24.8  22.3  18.1  17.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  22.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.5 113.5 113.5 113.5 113.5 108.0 108.0 106.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -45.0 -15.0 -12.0 -36.0 -24.0 -24.0   9.0 -13.0 VU  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  47.0  47.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        0.2%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        2.1%        1.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.20

 AL982026 260917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.40     57.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.