Rapid Intensification Guidance AL982026 260918 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.70 60.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.50 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.1 24.1 17.7 13.0 11.9 10.6 18.4 18.8 N N F F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 20.0 19.0 20.0 20.0 24.0 23.0 25.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 118.5 118.5 118.5 116.6 116.6 116.6 114.8 114.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -39.0 -26.0 -23.0 -27.0 -2.0 -2.0 -26.0 -20.0 VU VU VU VU U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 50.0 48.0 49.0 47.0 45.0 47.0 47.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 2.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 4.6% 2.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 10.2% 3.8% 7.0% 70kt / 48h 3.8% 1.5% 2.6% 65kt / 72h 2.5% 3.9% 3.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.18 AL982026 260918 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.70 60.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.