Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    141.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.8  18.2  17.1  17.2  16.0  12.5  14.9  24.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   7.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   9.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.0  96.0  96.0  89.6  89.6  88.0  88.0  89.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0 104.0  94.0  57.0  78.0  40.0   4.0  -4.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  43.0  41.0  40.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0   6.0   0.0   7.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.2%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h       29.5%       15.0%       22.2%
 70kt / 48h       15.0%        1.6%        8.3%
 65kt / 72h        5.8%        2.2%        4.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.42

 CP012026 260812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    141.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.