Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    142.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  16.5  19.7  17.1  10.7  17.5  19.0  22.4  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   5.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8  96.0  96.0  96.0  85.0  88.0  88.0  91.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0 105.0  61.0  86.0  60.0  16.0  25.0   5.0  F  F  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  49.0  44.0  45.0  43.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   3.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        7.3%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h       25.5%       12.3%       18.9%
 70kt / 48h       12.3%        1.9%        7.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%        2.3%        3.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.70

 CP012026 260812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    142.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.