Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    143.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  20.5  17.0  13.6  13.8  16.1  25.7  20.6  F  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   8.0   6.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.0  91.0  91.0  84.6  83.0  83.0  86.1  89.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0  52.0  90.0  78.0   0.0  13.0  72.0  45.0  F  N  F  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  62.0  59.0  48.0  49.0  45.0  43.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        6.2%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.8%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h       18.3%        7.7%       13.0%
 70kt / 48h        7.7%        1.4%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        1.8%        2.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.58

 CP012026 260813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    143.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.