Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    144.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  18.9  12.9  10.6  16.2  18.7  23.0  14.7  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   8.0   7.0  15.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.0  91.0  84.6  87.7  86.1  86.1  89.3  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  79.0  82.0  37.0 -15.0 -20.0  46.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  57.0  50.0  43.0  46.0  41.0  41.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   4.0   3.0  -4.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   6.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.2%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h       12.3%        4.7%        8.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        0.9%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        1.7%        1.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.46

 CP012026 260813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    144.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.