Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    145.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  13.8  13.8  14.5  15.6  21.1  15.7  16.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   7.0   8.0  10.0  15.0   7.0  35.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.0  91.0  87.7  89.3  87.7  87.7  94.4 103.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  43.0   8.0 -13.0 -31.0 -17.0  14.0   1.0  U  N  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  48.0  50.0  46.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0  -1.0   4.0   7.0   4.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.4%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        8.1%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        3.3%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        8.9%        3.3%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        1.4%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        2.7%        1.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.44

 CP012026 260813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    145.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.