Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    147.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  14.5  17.3  17.3  21.9  15.3  22.3  12.4  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0  11.0  13.0   9.0  26.0  28.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.7  77.7  76.1  76.1  77.7  82.7  88.0  93.5  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0 -24.0 -20.0 -12.0  -3.0  59.0 -16.0  -6.0  U VU VU  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  43.0  46.0  46.0  43.0  42.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   5.0   5.0   1.0   4.0   7.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        1.7%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.7%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        6.4%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        2.6%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h       15.3%        0.6%        7.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        1.9%        1.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.24

 CP012026 260814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    147.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.