Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012026 260814 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 149.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 35.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.80 F TC SIZE [%] 69.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.1 17.9 20.0 21.2 19.9 18.9 9.6 15.0 N F N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 16.0 13.0 9.0 9.0 21.0 23.0 18.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.3 71.1 72.7 72.7 74.3 83.0 86.6 90.5 U U U U U N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -37.0 -19.0 -8.0 10.0 12.0 -4.0 -33.0 -10.0 VU U U U U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 50.0 51.0 53.0 50.0 45.0 43.0 44.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 6.0 0.0 2.0 7.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.3% 1.1% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.2% 1.4% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 3.4% 1.8% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 6.8% 0.4% 3.6% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.30 CP012026 260814 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 149.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.