Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    151.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  21.5  21.1  19.8  19.5  13.2  16.9  13.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  10.0   7.0  18.0  23.0  20.0  18.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.7  69.3  69.3  69.3  78.0  83.5  85.5  87.4  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0  -9.0 -17.0   6.0 -16.0 -21.0 -12.0 -61.0 VU  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  46.0  48.0  44.0  42.0  44.0  45.0 VU VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0  11.0   7.0   4.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.0%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.0%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        2.8%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        9.0%        0.5%        4.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.34

 CP012026 260815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    151.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.