Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    153.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  18.9  19.3  21.3  17.6  16.2  20.4  18.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   9.0  13.0  28.0  28.0  19.0  25.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.7  67.7  69.3  72.7  79.8  85.5  87.4  87.4  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0 -16.0  -1.0 -24.0  -5.0 -48.0 -45.0  10.0  U  U  U VU  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  48.0  46.0  42.0  43.0  44.0  46.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   7.0   4.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        0.7%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        0.4%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.38

 CP012026 260815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    153.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.