Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    154.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  20.7  20.5  22.7  18.3  23.7  21.0  27.9  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0  15.0  29.0  21.0  22.0  18.0  33.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.7  69.3  72.7  78.0  81.6  85.5  87.4  85.5  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0 -21.0 -21.0 -15.0 -33.0 -19.0  17.0 -22.0 VU VU VU  U VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  46.0  45.0  42.0  42.0  45.0  46.0  49.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0   7.0   6.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        0.3%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.52

 CP012026 260815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    154.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.