Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260815 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    155.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  22.2  24.8  23.3  20.1  26.2  22.9  26.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  29.0  23.0  27.0  18.0  24.0  28.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.3  62.7  68.0  69.8  75.5  77.4  77.4  79.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0 -21.0   0.0 -22.0 -29.0  -3.0   0.0  24.0  U VU  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  45.0  41.0  43.0  47.0  48.0  48.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   4.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  -6.0  -4.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.4%        2.4%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        4.0%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        2.2%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        1.8%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        1.6%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        3.5%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        1.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.0%        0.5%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.66

 CP012026 260815 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    155.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.