Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    155.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  24.1  20.3  17.5  22.3  23.3  26.4  24.8  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  23.0  29.0  25.0  18.0  25.0  28.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.7  66.2  71.6  73.5  77.4  79.4  79.4  79.4  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0 -11.0 -18.0 -42.0 -11.0  12.0   4.0   7.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  43.0  45.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  54.0  54.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  -6.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.9%        3.8%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%        8.7%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%        5.9%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        5.3%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%        4.2%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%        8.2%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        3.4%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%        1.3%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.82

 CP012026 260816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    155.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.