Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260816 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    157.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  16.5  15.1  22.3  19.3  21.7  22.5  28.9  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  24.0  20.0  18.0  31.0  23.0  16.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.8  76.6  78.5  80.5  82.4  84.4  86.5  88.6  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0 -24.0  -6.0 -33.0  -9.0   8.0  20.0   0.0  U VU  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  42.0  44.0  43.0  45.0  48.0  51.0  54.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        0.5%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.08

 CP012026 260816 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    157.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.