Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260816 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    158.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  16.3  23.4  24.4  18.9  26.4  28.7  33.8  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  21.0  17.0  33.0  19.0  15.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.0  79.8  81.6  81.6  83.5  85.5  87.4  91.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   1.0 -25.0 -32.0   3.0   0.0  -5.0  20.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  42.0  42.0  44.0  45.0  49.0  50.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -2.0  -2.0   1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        0.2%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.98

 CP012026 260816 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    158.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.