Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260817 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    160.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  21.7  23.1  22.3  23.6  23.1  32.8  33.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  18.0  22.0  32.0  21.0  15.0  19.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.5  81.6  83.5  83.5  89.4  91.5  91.5  91.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0 -56.0 -46.0  -4.0 -36.0 -10.0   4.0  28.0  U VU VU  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  41.0  42.0  43.0  46.0  48.0  50.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -4.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.5%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        0.3%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.18

 CP012026 260817 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    160.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.