Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260817 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    162.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  20.2  17.3  16.8  25.1  25.2  29.2  29.2  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  20.0  28.0  32.0  19.0  16.0  17.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.5  92.4  92.4  92.4  94.4  96.5  94.4  96.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -55.0  -5.0  19.0   1.0 -16.0  20.0  22.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  41.0  42.0  42.0  48.0  49.0  55.0  54.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   1.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   7.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.0%        0.5%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.2%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        0.5%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.34

 CP012026 260817 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    162.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.