Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260817 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    162.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     42.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  18.0  17.7  22.5  21.4  31.1  27.4  30.6  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  24.0  31.0  29.0  17.0  15.0  17.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.5  92.4  92.4  92.4  94.4  92.4  94.4  96.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -45.0  -1.0  31.0  43.0  -6.0   5.0  67.0  18.0 VU  U  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  49.0  52.0  54.0  58.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0  -2.0  -1.0   4.0   4.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        0.6%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.6%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.6%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        0.4%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        0.4%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.36

 CP012026 260817 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    162.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.