Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260817 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    163.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  16.9  21.7  21.6  23.6  29.0  27.7  27.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  32.0  29.0  22.0  15.0  15.0  17.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.4  87.4  87.4  89.4  89.4  89.4  89.4  89.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0  38.0  53.0   0.0 -21.0  38.0   5.0  29.0  U  N  N  U VU  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  40.0  43.0  45.0  47.0  52.0  53.0  58.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   6.0  10.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        2.6%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        6.9%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%        3.4%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        2.8%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%        2.8%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        5.2%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        1.6%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%        1.0%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        0.6%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        0.7%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 CP012026 260817 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    163.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.