Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012026 260818 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.30 165.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 30.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 20.7 21.6 21.3 28.4 26.3 30.3 24.4 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 28.0 20.0 17.0 15.0 17.0 19.0 21.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 82.4 82.4 84.4 84.4 82.4 84.4 84.4 80.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 30.0 33.0 -15.0 -2.0 11.0 57.0 0.0 76.0 N N U U U N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 44.0 45.0 45.0 49.0 52.0 53.0 57.0 VU VU VU VU U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 11.0 16.0 17.0 N N N N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.4% 5.9% 8.6% 25kt / 24h 7.9% 13.0% 10.5% 30kt / 24h 7.9% 7.8% 7.9% 35kt / 24h 7.9% 7.3% 7.6% 40kt / 24h 7.9% 7.3% 7.6% 45kt / 36h 3.7% 7.8% 5.8% 55kt / 36h 2.5% 2.8% 2.7% 55kt / 48h 7.7% 1.5% 4.6% 70kt / 48h 1.9% 0.9% 1.4% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.44 CP012026 260818 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.30 165.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.