Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260818 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    165.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  21.5  20.4  25.4  26.3  26.1  29.0  36.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  23.0  17.0  15.0  14.0  15.0  17.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.4  79.4  79.4  81.5  79.4  79.4  75.5  71.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0 -20.0   5.0  -1.0  40.0   2.0  53.0  74.0  U VU  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  51.0  50.0  55.0  62.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   9.0  14.0  14.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.5%        5.1%        8.8%
 25kt / 24h        8.5%       10.3%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        8.5%        5.9%        7.2%
 35kt / 24h        8.5%        5.8%        7.1%
 40kt / 24h        8.5%        5.8%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%        5.1%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        1.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        1.1%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.48

 CP012026 260818 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    165.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.