Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260818 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    166.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  19.5  24.3  27.1  23.0  30.0  33.9  47.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  17.0  14.0  13.0  14.0  17.0  13.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.4  74.4  72.4  72.4  74.4  72.4  66.6  64.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0   4.0  -4.0  -5.0  49.0 -19.0  67.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  46.0  45.0  47.0  48.0  51.0  60.0  63.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   0.0   6.0  11.0  16.0  17.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.1%        6.4%       10.7%
 25kt / 24h        9.2%        9.7%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        9.2%        6.0%        7.6%
 35kt / 24h        9.2%        5.8%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        9.2%        5.8%        7.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%        5.1%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        1.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        1.0%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.44

 CP012026 260818 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    166.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.