Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260818 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    167.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  26.4  30.5  27.4  26.5  31.7  38.2  38.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  15.0  15.0  16.0  16.0  10.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.4  61.5  57.4  59.4  57.4  55.5  51.6  46.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0   2.0  13.0  57.0  24.0  41.0  88.0 109.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  56.0  61.0  60.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0   6.0   8.0  11.0  16.0  11.0  16.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       36.2%        9.8%       23.0%
 25kt / 24h       19.1%       10.6%       14.9%
 30kt / 24h       19.1%        6.9%       13.0%
 35kt / 24h       19.1%        6.9%       13.0%
 40kt / 24h       19.1%        6.6%       12.8%
 45kt / 36h       10.5%        6.0%        8.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 CP012026 260818 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    167.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  26.4  30.5  27.4  26.5  31.7  38.2  38.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  56.0  61.0  60.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0   6.0   8.0  11.0  16.0  11.0  16.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%