Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260819 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    168.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  29.7  28.3  27.6  31.6  29.3  38.9  27.2  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  14.0  15.0  16.0  12.0   6.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.5  42.4  44.4  44.4  42.4  38.5  33.0  24.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0   7.0  47.0  64.0  10.0 107.0  62.0  59.0  U  U  N  N  U  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  47.0  49.0  50.0  56.0  59.0  58.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   9.0  10.0  17.0  14.0  13.0  17.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.8%        5.2%       14.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.5%        5.3%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        6.5%        3.3%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.2%        3.1%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 CP012026 260819 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    168.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  29.7  28.3  27.6  31.6  29.3  38.9  27.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  47.0  49.0  50.0  56.0  59.0  58.0 VF VF VF  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   9.0  10.0  17.0  14.0  13.0  17.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%