Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260819 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    169.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  23.2  26.7  30.3  27.7  40.5  30.2  13.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  15.0  17.0  14.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.4  34.4  34.4  32.4  28.5  24.8  17.7  11.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  42.0  13.0 -12.0  85.0  64.0  48.0  29.0  N  N  U  U  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  54.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  10.0  10.0  11.0  11.0  12.0  12.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.8%        1.1%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        0.9%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.46

 CP012026 260819 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    169.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.