Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260819 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    170.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  27.5  30.2  32.6  38.6  37.7  23.4  14.5  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  16.0  17.0  17.0  10.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.4  32.4  30.5  32.4  24.8  17.7  11.1   8.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0   8.0 -17.0  23.0  64.0  31.0  36.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  46.0  48.0  50.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  53.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  10.0  11.0   9.0  10.0  11.0   9.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.3%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.42

 CP012026 260819 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    170.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.