Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10    171.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  27.7  35.1  43.4  44.6  23.3  16.4  17.5  N  N  U VU VU  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  18.0  13.0  10.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.4  47.4  45.5  43.5  38.0  31.0  23.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  24.0  88.0  58.0  36.0  37.0  24.0 -15.0  U  U  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  48.0  49.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  53.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  12.0  13.0  11.0  10.0  12.0   5.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.2%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.34

 CP012026 260820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10    171.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.