Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    172.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  34.6  44.1  46.2  36.4  13.7  17.7  14.3  N  U VU VU  U  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  13.0  10.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.4  55.5  51.6  48.0  39.3  36.1  33.0  28.6  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  90.0  76.0  29.0  71.0   3.0  39.0 -18.0  U  F  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  48.0  53.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  52.0  55.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  14.0  11.0  11.0  16.0   4.0   8.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.22

 CP012026 260820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    172.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.