Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    172.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  43.3  46.6  43.6  22.8  14.3  13.6  17.5  U VU VU VU  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  10.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.5  56.6  53.0  49.4  46.0  42.7  38.0  33.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0  88.0   8.0  61.0  50.0  27.0 -15.0   6.0  F  F  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  52.0  53.0  51.0  48.0  49.0  49.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  11.0  12.0   8.0   9.0   4.0   5.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.08

 CP012026 260820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    172.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.