Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    172.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.9  46.4  42.7  35.8  14.2  18.6  11.5  18.9 VU VU VU  U  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   8.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.5  56.6  54.8  49.4  42.7  38.0  33.6  33.6  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0   4.0  58.0  32.0  22.0  39.0 -21.0   6.0  F  U  N  N  U  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  13.0   9.0  14.0   3.0  12.0   0.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        0.5%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.06

 CP012026 260821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    172.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.