Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.20    171.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  18.0  21.0  17.9  18.0  19.7  21.5  22.8  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.1  41.5  41.5  38.6  38.6  34.4  27.9  27.9  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  43.0  70.0  12.0   0.0 -12.0  14.0   6.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  46.0  45.0  47.0  52.0  53.0  55.0  54.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   8.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        0.4%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.98

 CP012026 260822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.20    171.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.