Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30    172.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  17.4  16.8  18.3  18.3  24.1  18.7  19.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.7  48.0  48.0  43.6  43.6  39.4  32.9  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  68.0  10.0  33.0  15.0  32.0  21.0  11.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  45.0  46.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  52.0  52.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   5.0   4.0   5.0   8.0   5.0   7.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.4%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.06

 CP012026 260822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30    172.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.