Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.80    172.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  13.9  18.1  20.3  21.4  17.5  18.9  18.1  F  F  F  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.5  53.0  53.0  48.6  48.6  44.4  37.9  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  14.0  -1.0  21.0 -10.0  27.0  -2.0  12.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  46.0  47.0  48.0  49.0  50.0  51.0  54.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   6.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.98

 CP012026 260822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.80    172.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.