Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90    173.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  19.3  22.7  24.8  16.1  19.4  22.1  30.8  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.6  58.6  58.6  53.0  54.4  47.9  42.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0 -20.0 -52.0 -16.0  10.0   2.0  14.0 -48.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  48.0  50.0  53.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   2.0   3.0   7.0   7.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.68

 CP012026 260823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90    173.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.