Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.20    174.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    163.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  18.1  14.9  17.6  18.2  24.7  27.9  27.2  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.0  46.7  46.7  46.7  40.9  42.0  36.7  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0   6.0 -29.0 -45.0 -12.0 -31.0  -7.0 -33.0  U  U VU VU  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  47.0  46.0  45.0  49.0  48.0  48.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.00

 CP012026 260824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.20    174.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.