Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012026 260824 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.50 175.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.30 F TC SIZE [%] 191.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.2 17.2 17.4 15.6 19.6 24.9 28.4 20.0 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 53.0 46.7 46.7 47.9 42.0 36.7 37.7 30.0 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -35.0 -28.0 -21.0 -9.0 1.0 -42.0 -39.0 12.0 VU VU VU U U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 45.0 46.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.02 CP012026 260824 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.50 175.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.