Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012026 260825 18UTC Storm Located at : 34.90 177.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.70 F TC SIZE [%] 403.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.3 21.3 21.9 24.0 26.1 22.9 25.1 30.6 F N N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 52.0 52.0 53.2 53.2 47.7 40.0 32.6 31.2 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -35.0 -8.0 -29.0 -50.0 -2.0 7.0 -12.0 -34.0 VU U VU VU U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 46.0 46.0 45.0 46.0 46.0 44.0 43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.9% 0.0% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.9% 0.0% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.52 CP012026 260825 18UTC Storm Located at : 34.90 177.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.