Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012026 260826 06UTC Storm Located at : 35.30 177.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 491.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.8 23.3 26.0 27.9 24.1 27.1 35.5 27.8 N N N N N N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 57.0 58.2 51.7 51.7 45.0 45.0 36.9 28.4 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -17.0 -56.0 -19.0 2.0 0.0 -20.0 10.0 -46.0 U VU U U U VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 45.0 46.0 45.0 46.0 44.0 45.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 -1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -7.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 1.9% 0.1% 1.0% 30kt / 24h 1.9% 0.0% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 1.9% 0.0% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.22 CP012026 260826 06UTC Storm Located at : 35.30 177.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.