Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.60    177.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    546.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  26.2  27.7  26.0  22.3  36.1  40.2  36.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.2  51.7  51.7  45.0  45.0  36.9  29.0  21.8  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -58.0 -21.0   2.0 -32.0 -43.0 -38.0   0.0  13.0 VU VU  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  46.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  46.0  42.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%        0.0%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%        0.0%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%        0.0%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.98

 CP012026 260826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.60    177.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.