Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.70    178.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    589.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  22.5  24.0  27.3  30.2  31.6  27.3  27.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  36.9  36.9  29.0  21.3   9.2  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0 -22.0 -25.0 -40.0 -90.0  -8.0  77.0 -10.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  47.0  46.0  45.0  45.0  43.0  46.0  53.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.6%        0.0%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        7.6%        0.0%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        7.6%        0.0%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.14

 CP012026 260827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.70    178.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.