Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.00    178.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    614.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  22.9  27.0  30.5  26.9  24.2  24.4  24.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  36.9  36.9  28.4  16.6  16.6  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0 -17.0 -20.0 -60.0 -21.0   5.0  40.0  40.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  45.0  46.0  43.0  43.0  48.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h       10.1%        0.0%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h       10.1%        0.0%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h       10.1%        0.0%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.00

 CP012026 260827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.00    178.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.