Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012026 260829 00UTC Storm Located at : 38.50 178.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.1 40.4 36.1 32.6 19.7 38.7 64.6 64.6 U U U U N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 118.0 110.0 106.0 103.0 105.0 137.0 120.0 120.0 F F F F F VF F F Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -25.0 -10.0 40.0 88.0 75.0 49.0 -34.0 -34.0 VU U N F N N VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 39.0 40.0 42.0 45.0 47.0 51.0 51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -2.0 -5.0 -5.0 -14.0 51.0 80.0 80.0 F N F F VF VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 1.0% 4.2% 2.6% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 2.7% 5.1% 3.9% 55kt / 36h 1.4% 0.9% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 44.9% 3.3% 24.1% 70kt / 48h 23.7% 1.2% 12.5% 65kt / 72h 40.4% 1.2% 20.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.52 CP012026 260829 00UTC Storm Located at : 38.50 178.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.1 40.4 36.1 32.6 19.7 38.7 64.6 64.6 F F F F N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 39.0 40.0 42.0 45.0 47.0 51.0 51.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -2.0 -5.0 -5.0 -14.0 51.0 80.0 80.0 U N U U VU VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%