Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012026 260829 06UTC Storm Located at : 38.30 177.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.6 39.7 38.2 30.9 28.3 39.3 73.0 73.0 U U U U N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 106.0 102.0 101.0 101.0 112.0 125.0 151.0 151.0 F F F F F F VF VF Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -5.0 5.0 18.0 32.0 70.0 30.0 71.0 71.0 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 43.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 45.0 53.0 53.0 VU VU VU VU U VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -3.0 -18.0 -15.0 36.0 -24.0 -34.0 -34.0 F N VF VF VU VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 3.7% 2.2% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 2.3% 4.7% 3.5% 55kt / 36h 1.1% 0.8% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 36.4% 2.5% 19.5% 70kt / 48h 15.9% 1.1% 8.5% 65kt / 72h 43.3% 3.2% 23.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.60 CP012026 260829 06UTC Storm Located at : 38.30 177.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.6 39.7 38.2 30.9 28.3 39.3 73.0 73.0 F F F N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 43.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 45.0 53.0 53.0 VF VF VF VF F VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -3.0 -18.0 -15.0 36.0 -24.0 -34.0 -34.0 U N VU VU VF VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 1.5% 0.2% 0.8%