Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012026 260829 18UTC Storm Located at : 40.00 175.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 21.2 25.6 29.4 46.7 54.0 99.2 99.2 N N N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 98.0 98.0 98.0 98.0 134.0 150.0 118.0 118.0 F F F F VF VF F F Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 35.0 70.0 108.0 15.0 -35.0 -24.0 -24.0 N N N F U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 49.0 51.0 55.0 54.0 55.0 48.0 48.0 VU U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0 -11.0 8.0 38.0 80.0 92.0 92.0 F F F U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 3.5% 11.9% 7.7% 30kt / 24h 1.5% 3.2% 2.4% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 2.3% 1.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.3% 1.2% 45kt / 36h 3.6% 10.0% 6.8% 55kt / 36h 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 55kt / 48h 32.4% 2.4% 17.4% 70kt / 48h 13.4% 0.9% 7.2% 65kt / 72h 8.6% 0.2% 4.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.70 CP012026 260829 18UTC Storm Located at : 40.00 175.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 21.2 25.6 29.4 46.7 54.0 99.2 99.2 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 49.0 51.0 55.0 54.0 55.0 48.0 48.0 VF F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0 -11.0 8.0 38.0 80.0 92.0 92.0 U U U F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%