Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012026 260830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.60    174.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  24.4  24.4  24.4  24.4  24.4  24.4  24.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  96.0  96.0  96.0  96.0  96.0  96.0  96.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       12.5%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        3.4%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.6%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%       18.2%       12.9%
 55kt / 36h        4.4%        4.6%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h       48.9%       11.4%       30.1%
 70kt / 48h       26.0%        7.0%       16.5%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       36.2%       49.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.80

 CP012026 260830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.60    174.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  24.4  24.4  24.4  24.4  24.4  24.4  24.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%